Nigeria's CBN PMI stayed below 50 in May 2026, even as private-sector surveys showed expansion

Nigeria's business pulse improved in May 2026, but not enough to return to growth on the Central Bank of Nigeria's survey. The CBN-backed composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 49.6 points in May, up from 49.4 points in April, but remained below the 50-point line that separates expansion from contraction.

That makes May the second consecutive month of contraction after a long expansion run. The April print had already broken a 16-month stretch of growth that began in December 2024, when the index slipped from 53.2 points in March to 49.4.

Agriculture was the only broad sector still expanding

The headline was mixed beneath the surface. Agriculture stayed above water, with its PMI rising to 50.9 points from 50.2 in April. That marked the sector's 22nd consecutive month of expansion, keeping food production and rural activity as the clear bright spot in the CBN survey.

The other two broad sectors were weaker. Services improved to 49.3 points from 48.8, but still sat below 50. Industry slipped to 49.3 points from 49.5, keeping manufacturing and factory activity in contraction territory. That matters for the everyday prices Opaindex tracks: industrial producers use diesel, imported inputs, transport and credit, while builders feel any weakness in demand for cement and other materials.

Demand stayed soft, even as hiring recovered

The sub-indicators show why the headline stayed under 50. New orders remained subdued at 48.5 points, a sign that customers were not placing enough fresh demand to pull the index back into expansion. Raw-material inventories also fell to 48.5, showing continued depletion of input stocks.

Supplier performance worsened. The suppliers' delivery-time index dropped to 49.4 points from 50.9, suggesting supply chains were less smooth than in April. The one clearer improvement was labour: employment rose to 51.6 points from 49.6, moving back into expansion despite the softer demand backdrop.

Why two PMI surveys disagree

The CBN signal is not the only PMI in the market. The Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI, compiled by S&P Global and tracked by Trading Economics, rose to 54.1 points in May from 52.4 in April — its strongest private-sector improvement since August 2025.

That divergence is important. The Stanbic/S&P survey points to a rebound in surveyed private firms, driven by stronger output and new orders. The CBN sample, which reports agriculture, services and industry separately, still shows a broader economy struggling to clear the 50 mark. Read together, the message is not "Nigeria is booming" or "Nigeria is collapsing"; it is that recovery is uneven, with some formal businesses improving while wider demand and inventories remain fragile.

Energy, inflation and interest rates are still the pressure points

PMI is a monthly business-conditions signal, so it sits closer to daily costs than quarterly GDP. When new orders are weak and inventories are falling, firms tend to hold back on production, purchases and hiring. When energy costs rise, companies try to pass them through into selling prices, which can keep pressure on households.

The CBN had already held its policy rate at 26.5% in May, and the latest inflation story remains uncomfortable: headline inflation later printed 15.93% for May. A high policy rate makes working capital expensive, while fuel and freight costs keep moving through the cost chain. Those pressures show up in the live fuel and food-price data Opaindex tracks, especially for diesel-powered haulage and staple items such as local rice.

The practical read

May's PMI is a caution flag rather than a recession call. The index improved, agriculture kept expanding, and hiring recovered. But with the composite still at 49.6, services and industry below 50, and new orders stuck at 48.5, business conditions had not fully healed by May.

For readers tracking Nigerian prices, the PMI says the same thing as the price pages: supply and demand are still uneven. The economy can grow in GDP terms while many firms still report weak orders, tight inventories and cost pressure. That gap is why Opaindex links macro signals like PMI to the dated, sourced prices households and businesses actually face.