Trade

Nigeria's trade surplus jumps 341% to ₦7.55 trillion in Q1 2026 as the import bill shrinks

NBS data shows Nigeria's merchandise trade balance swung to a ₦7.55tn surplus in the first quarter of 2026 — up 340.88% on the prior quarter — as imports fell to ₦13.62tn while exports edged up to ₦21.17tn.

By Opaindex Markets Desk · 9 June 2026 · Nigeria · 4 min read

Key takeaways

▪Nigeria's merchandise trade balance was a positive ₦7.55 trillion in Q1 2026, a 340.88% jump from the preceding quarter, on total trade of ₦34.79 trillion (₦21.17tn exports, ₦13.62tn imports).
▪The swing was driven by a shrinking import bill: imports fell 21.05% quarter-on-quarter (and 18.17% year-on-year from ₦16.64tn in Q1 2025), led by lower petroleum-product imports as local refining ramps up.
▪Exports stayed crude-heavy — crude oil was ₦11.20tn (52.92% of exports) — while non-oil exports reached ₦3.19tn (15.05%) and agricultural exports fell 31.2% to ₦1.17tn.
▪China remained the largest source of imports (₦5.10tn, 37.42%); India was the top export destination (₦2.77tn, 13.09%), ahead of France, the Netherlands, Spain and the United States.

Nigeria sold far more to the world than it bought in early 2026. According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) Foreign Trade in Goods Statistics report for the first quarter, total merchandise trade stood at ₦34.79 trillion in Q1 2026, split between ₦21.17 trillion of exports and ₦13.62 trillion of imports. That left a trade surplus of ₦7.55 trillion — a 340.88% increase on the surplus recorded in the preceding quarter.

A surplus built on falling imports

The headline swing was less about a surge in exports than a sharp drop in what Nigeria imported. The import bill fell 21.05% quarter-on-quarter from ₦17.25 trillion in Q4 2025, and was down 18.17% year-on-year from ₦16.64 trillion in Q1 2025. The NBS attributed the improvement largely to lower petroleum-product imports alongside firmer crude oil exports — the same import-substitution story that has accompanied the ramp-up of domestic refining and shows up in the petrol (PMS) and diesel (AGO) prices Opaindex tracks.

Exports, by contrast, rose more modestly: up 2.77% year-on-year (from ₦20.60 trillion in Q1 2025) and 11.63% quarter-on-quarter (from ₦18.96 trillion).

Still a crude-oil economy

The export mix remains heavily tilted toward oil. Crude oil exports were ₦11.20 trillion — 52.92% of all exports — even after slipping 13.53% year-on-year from ₦12.96 trillion, with the quarter-on-quarter figure up 15.45%. Non-oil exports reached ₦3.19 trillion (15.05% of exports), a bright spot that the NBS flagged as evidence of gradual diversification.

Agriculture, however, went the other way: agricultural exports fell 31.2% to ₦1.17 trillion, from ₦1.70 trillion in the same quarter of 2025 — a reminder that Nigeria's diversification drive is uneven across sectors.

Who Nigeria trades with

On the buy side, China remained the largest source of imports, supplying ₦5.10 trillion of goods — 37.42% of the total — ahead of the United States at ₦2.81 trillion. Machinery and transport equipment was the biggest import category at ₦5.01 trillion (36.79%), followed by mineral fuels (₦2.65 trillion) and chemicals (₦2.02 trillion) — capital goods that feed into construction and manufacturing costs, and ultimately into prices like cement.

On the sell side, India was the top export destination at ₦2.77 trillion (13.09%), followed by France (₦1.97 trillion), the Netherlands (₦1.95 trillion), Spain (₦1.63 trillion) and the United States (₦1.18 trillion). Those five markets together took 44.84% of Nigeria's exports in the quarter.

Why a trade surplus matters for prices

A large goods surplus means more foreign-currency earnings flowing in than out on the trade account, which — all else equal — supports the naira and the foreign reserves that back it. A steadier currency is one of the conditions the CBN has linked to resuming interest-rate cuts, and a stronger naira lowers the landed cost of the imports that still dominate Nigerian shelves. That is the chain that connects a quarterly trade report to the everyday commodity, energy and food prices Opaindex tracks across Nigeria.

The figures here are NBS Q1 2026 trade aggregates as published in June 2026; the live prices linked above carry their own source, freshness (asOf) and confidence on each commodity page.