Nigeria's economy grew 3.89% in Q1 2026 as services and farming led — but the pace cooled from Q4

Nigeria's economy kept expanding in early 2026, but at a slightly gentler clip than late last year. According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) Nigerian Gross Domestic Product Report, real GDP grew 3.89% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026. That is an improvement on the 3.13% recorded in the same quarter of 2025 — but a step down from the 4.07% pace of the fourth quarter of 2025, the quarter immediately before it.

Two ways to read one number

The headline can be read in two directions. Measured against a year earlier, growth accelerated — 3.89% beats Q1 2025's 3.13%, continuing the recovery that followed the 2023–24 reforms. Measured against the most recent quarter, momentum cooled, slipping from 4.07% in Q4 2025. First quarters are also typically softer than the holiday-heavy fourth quarter, so some of that step-down is seasonal rather than a turn in the trend.

The non-oil economy did almost all the work

The expansion was overwhelmingly a non-oil story. The non-oil sector grew 3.94% and accounted for 96.08% of total real GDP — so Nigeria's output now depends very little, in volume terms, on crude.

Within that, services led, growing 4.31% and making up 57.73% of the economy — the single largest block of output, spanning finance, telecoms, trade and transport. Agriculture staged the sharpest turnaround, growing 3.15% after barely moving a year earlier (0.07% in Q1 2025), as farming areas saw improved security and conditions. Construction grew strongly at 6.38%, a sector that runs directly on the cement and building-material prices Opaindex tracks. The wider industrial sector grew 3.50%, up from 3.42%.

Oil grew in value even as the barrels fell

The oil sector is the paradox in the report. It grew 2.57% in real terms — better than the 1.87% of a year earlier — yet average crude oil production fell to 1.55 million barrels per day, down from 1.62 mbpd in Q1 2025. Output volume slipped, but the sector's measured real value still rose, and at just 3.92% of GDP, oil's swings now move the headline far less than they once did. That said, crude remains the dominant source of the foreign exchange that steadies the naira and funds government — so its volumes still matter well beyond their small GDP share.

Nominal vs real: where inflation hides

In nominal terms the economy was worth ₦110.79 trillion in Q1 2026, up 17.79% from ₦94.05tn a year earlier. But real growth was only 3.89%. The gap between the two — an implied economy-wide price rise of roughly 13% — is inflation: most of the larger naira figure reflects higher prices, not more goods and services. That is the same squeeze visible in the 15.93% headline inflation rate the NBS reported for May, and the reason the CBN held its policy rate at 26.5%. It is also why a single growth percentage tells only part of the story: with Nigeria's population expanding at well over 2% a year, output per person is rising far more slowly than the 3.89% headline.

Why GDP sits upstream of the prices we track

A quarterly growth figure sits at the very top of the chain that ends at the shelf. Faster non-oil growth, a firmer trade surplus and a steadier currency are the conditions that, over time, ease the cost of imported petrol (PMS), staples like local rice and construction inputs like cement. Opaindex tracks those live, sourced prices across Nigeria so readers can see how a macro number like GDP is — or isn't — reaching everyday costs.

The figures here are NBS Q1 2026 GDP aggregates, released on 25 May 2026; the live prices linked throughout carry their own asOf date, source and confidence on each commodity page.